Hormuz in numbers: seven months of the largest oil shock on record
Oct. 7, 2026 — Seven months after Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a route critical to global trade in crude oil, fertilizers and liquefied natural gas, according to UN News, the shock to energy markets is still unfolding.
**The scale.** The World Bank called the disruption the largest oil market shock in history; by the end of March, Brent crude had risen about 65%, its largest monthly increase ever, the bank said in its April commodity outlook. It then forecast Brent averaging $86 a barrel for 2026.
**September's spike.** The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Brent averaged $114 a barrel in September, $23 more than in August, after attacks on oil infrastructure and tankers around the Middle East, most notably on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, a bypass around the strait. The disruption sent Brent as high as $131 on Sept. 15, the agency said in its Oct. 6 outlook, though it still expects prices to generally fall from their early-October average.
**Getting oil out anyway.** Exports have partly recovered by other routes. Crude exports from the region exceeded prewar levels on four days in the last week of September, according to provisional data from the ship-tracking firm Kpler cited by Al Jazeera, largely because of US naval escorts and ship-to-ship transfers along Oman's coast.
**What did not age well.** The closure has now lasted more than seven months. The World Bank's April baseline of $86 for the year compares with September's actual average of $114, by the EIA's count, though the bank's own risk case allowed for $95 to $115.
The war's effects reach far beyond the Gulf: fuel, fertilizer and shipping costs have risen worldwide, the reports cited say. How long the strait stays closed depends on talks that, as of Oct. 7, have produced no lasting agreement.
The wall: As of Oct. 7, how much oil is passing through the strait itself, as opposed to around it, is not settled across the sources cited.
Tier: Confirmed (based on the EIA's October outlook and the World Bank's April outlook, with Kpler's data via Al Jazeera)
Sources
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook: Global oil markets (Oct. 6, 2026)
- World Bank, Strait of Hormuz disruption sends oil prices surging (April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook)
- Al Jazeera (Qatar), Is Iran charging a toll to allow oil traffic through Hormuz? (Oct. 5, 2026)
- UN News, In Islamabad, Guterres calls for end to US-Iran conflict (Oct. 6, 2026)
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