Update: NOAA says El Niño is strengthening, with a historic-strength event likely by late year

Oct. 8, 2026 — This updates our Oct. 6 report on the "Super" El Niño. El Niño continues to strengthen, and a strong-to-very-strong event is likely through January-March 2027, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said in its monthly update, keeping its El Niño Advisory in place. The Niño-3.4 ocean temperature index stood 2.1 degrees Celsius above normal. The center put the chance that the event reaches historic strength, 2.5 degrees or more on its three-month relative index, at 83% for October through December. Its next update is Nov. 12.

The wall: The discussion does not forecast any one region's winter; the center points readers to its seasonal outlooks.

Tier: Confirmed (based on the Climate Prediction Center's Oct. 8 discussion)

Sources

• NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (Oct. 8, 2026)

Related coverage

• 'Super' El Niño already rivals 1997 and 2015, UN reports Oct 7

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